justin․searls․co

Hal Machow Is Going to Die on Thursday. He Has One Last Message for Democrats.

Gripping story, overall, and worth a read. This bit stuck out to me as something I'd never considered before, but felt obvious as soon as I was exposed to it:

Political communicators are sticking to approaches developed for an era when ticket-splitters and swing voters composed a sizeable chunk of the electorate. But with a body politic that has sorted into two highly polarized parties—with just one-tenth of voters torn between them—the logic of persuading voters to support a candidate has grown obsolete. Ad campaigns should instead promote the Democratic Party itself, Malchow proposes, particularly at moments when news events might help it win new adherents, such as after a mass shooting, which thrusts gun-control policy back into the news and voters might be ready to reconsider their allegiances.

To wit: in an era of extreme party polarization, 90% of people in the US are voting based on party affiliation, but campaign advertising is still centered on candidate choice. This isn't just inefficient, it's counter-productive, since most candidates run away from their parties in general elections because both parties' brands are so toxic. Focusing money and messaging on bolstering a party's brand seems like a much smarter way to meet this moment of overwhelmingly party-line voting.

I can only hope I'll still have meaningful insights to offer others during my final week on earth.


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